based on the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data tracked through late August.
These remain projections until the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) issues the official announcement (typically a day or two before the change). Final figures can still shift slightly with the last days of international oil and rand movements, but the direction and approximate scale are now well established after volatile swings during August.
Expected September 2026 Adjustments
Recent reports drawing on month-end CEF under-recovery figures (as of around 28 August) point to:
| Fuel Type | Expected Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 (ULP/LRP) | +R0.93 to +R0.96 /ℓ | Most recent figures cluster around 93–96c |
| Petrol 95 (ULP/LRP) | +R1.04 to +R1.07 /ℓ | Around R1.04–R1.07 |
| Diesel 0.05% (500ppm, wholesale) | +R2.71 to +R2.77 /ℓ | Steep rise |
| Diesel 0.005% (50ppm, wholesale) | +R2.92 to +R2.98 /ℓ | Largest increase |
| Illuminating paraffin | +R2.12 to +R2.16 /ℓ | Significant |
Sources vary slightly by exact day of CEF data, but the picture is consistent: petrol up by roughly R1 per litre and diesel by nearly R3 per litre.
Current Prices (Effective 5 August 2026)
Approximate inland (Gauteng) levels for reference:
- Petrol 93: R25.42 /ℓ
- Petrol 95: R25.58 /ℓ
- Diesel 0.05% (500ppm wholesale): ~R26.17 /ℓ
- Diesel 0.005% (50ppm wholesale): ~R26.90 /ℓ
Coastal prices are lower (typically 70–90c less for petrol). After the projected hikes, inland 95 petrol would move into the mid-R26 range and wholesale diesel toward or above R29 /ℓ in some cases.
Why the Increases?
- International oil prices remain elevated (Brent crude mostly around $90–95 per barrel in August). Ongoing Middle East tensions — particularly related to the US-Iran conflict and restrictions/disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz — have kept supply risks high and prevented a sustained drop in crude and refined product prices.
- The rand has been relatively stable (around R16/USD range) and has provided limited relief, but not enough to offset the oil-driven under-recoveries.
- August itself saw mixed movements: a 52c petrol decrease (helped by a slate levy reduction) but diesel increases of R1.23–R1.38 /ℓ. Earlier hopes of better recoveries mid-month reversed as oil prices strengthened again.
Fuel prices in South Africa are adjusted monthly based on the Basic Fuel Price (international product costs + shipping), government levies (including the general fuel levy and Road Accident Fund levy), and the slate levy mechanism that recovers or credits historical under-/over-recoveries. Temporary fuel levy relief measures were fully phased out by July 2026.
Broader Context and Implications
2026 has been highly volatile for SA fuel prices, driven largely by the Middle East conflict. Prices rose sharply earlier in the year (95 petrol peaked near R27.19 in June), saw some relief in July, then mixed changes in August. Year-to-date, both petrol and diesel remain substantially higher than pre-conflict levels in early 2026.
Impacts include:
- Higher costs for private motorists (a 45–50ℓ tank of 95 petrol could cost ~R45–R55 more).
- Steeper pressure on diesel users — taxis, logistics, agriculture, and double-cab bakkies — with an 80ℓ tank potentially costing R230–R250+ more.
- Knock-on effects on transport costs, food prices, and inflation (fuel has a notable weighting in both CPI and PPI).
- Continued cost-of-living pressure for households and businesses after the full reinstatement of fuel levies.
The official DMPR announcement and detailed price schedules by magisterial district zone are expected soon. Projections can still move a little before then, so check official sources closer to the date for the exact numbers that will apply from 2 September.
