Kusukela ekuqaleni kukaSepthemba 2026 (cishe ngosuku lwe-1,659 lokuhlasela okuphelele), impi yeRussia ne-Ukraine isalokhu iyimpi enamandla kakhulu yokulahla umngcele ngaphandle kokumiswa kwempi noma ukuphela okuxoxiswane ngakho. Imizamo yezobunhloli iqalile kabusha ngaphansi kokulamula kwe-US, kodwa ukungezwani okuyinhloko kuyaqhubeka, kuyilapho ukulwa kuqhubeka nokuzuza kancane kancane kweRussia ngamaqhinga, ukulwa kwe-Ukraine kanye neziteleka ezikude, kanye nezindleko eziphezulu zezakhamuzi nezempi.

Isimo Sezombusazwe

Izithunywa ezikhethekile zase-US uSteve Witkoff noJared Kushner bavakashele eMoscow (cishe mhla ziyi-5 kuMandulo, behlangana noPutin) bese kuba yiKyiv (mhla ziyi-6 kuMandulo, behlangana noZelenskyy) bezama ukuvuselela izingxoxo ezazingasasebenzi. Ukumiswa okwesikhashana kwezinsuku ezintathu ezitelekeni ezinde ngokumelene neKyiv (okuphawulwe ukuthi kukhona ukuvumelana) kwenza kwaba lula ukuvakasha. Akukho ntuthuko enkulu eyenzekile ezindabeni eziyisisekelo.

• I-Russia iyaqhubeka nokugcizelela imigomo yokuzimisela okukhulu, okuhlanganisa nokuhoxa kwe-Ukraine ezingxenyeni ezisele ze-Donbas eziphethwe yi-Ukraine (izindawo zaseDonetsk Oblast ezingakazithathi ngokugcwele), ukuqashelwa “kwamaqiniso endawo,” kanye nezinye izidingo ezihlobene nezinhloso zayo zempi yokuqala. Izitatimende zaseKremlin zigcizelela ukuthi imigomo izoqina uma impi iqhubeka nokuthi izingxoxo kumele zibhekane “nezimbangela eziyinhloko.”
• I-Ukraine iyenqaba ukuvumelana ngezindawo ezizimele, ithi izovuza ubudlova futhi imeme ukuhlaselwa kwesikhathi esizayo. UZelenskyy uveze ukuvuleleka eziphakamisweni zase-US kanye nokusekela ukuqinisa izingxoxo ngefomethi yezinhlangothi ezintathu (US-Russia-Ukraine), okungenzeka kube ngoSepthemba noma ngo-Okthoba.
• Zombili izinhlangothi zibonise ukuzimisela ukuqala kabusha izingxoxo zamazwe amathathu, yize imininingwane ngendawo kanye nesikhathi ingakaxazululwa. Ucingo lukaTrump noPutin ngoSepthemba 8 luxoxe ngemihlangano yezithunywa kanye namathuba okuqeda impi; izikhulu zaseRussia zikhombisile ukuthi uPutin walusebenzisa ukwethula ukuhlolwa kwakhe (okuphikiswana ngakho) kwenkundla yempi.

Izingxoxo zangaphambilini ezaziqondiswe yi-US (isb., e-Abu Dhabi naseGeneva ekuqaleni kuka-2026) nazo zehlulekile ukuvala igebe lendawo. Indlela yokuxhumana iyonke ikhombisa intuthuko encane phakathi kwezimpi eziqhubekayo.

Isimo Sezempi / Sangaphambili

Amabutho aseRussia ayaqhubeka nemisebenzi yokuhlasela, ikakhulukazi empumalanga ye-Ukraine (indlela yaseDonetsk, okuhlanganisa nezindawo ezizungeze iPokrovsk, i-Fortress Belt ebanzi yaseSlovyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka-Kostyantynivka, kanye nemikhakha eseduze neKupyansk) kanye nezingxenye zaseningizimu (isb., indlela yaseHulyaipole). Intuthuko ngokuvamile ihamba kancane, iyaqhubeka, futhi ibiza kakhulu kunokuba ibe yinto enqumayo ngokusebenza.

• Ukuhlolwa kwe-Institute for the Study of War (ISW) kubonisa ukuthi inzuzo yendawo yaseRussia inciphile ezinyangeni zakamuva uma kuqhathaniswa nezikhathi zangaphambilini. Amabutho ase-Ukraine enze izenzo eziphawulekayo zokuhlasela ekuqaleni kuka-2026 (kufaka phakathi indlela yase-Oleksandrivka, ekhulula izindawo zokuhlala eziningi kanye namakhulu amakhilomitha-skwele ezingxenyeni zaseDonetsk, eDnipropetrovsk, naseZaporizhia oblast). Amabutho ase-Ukraine nawo enze intuthuko yakamuva noma abambelele ngokuqinile ezindaweni ezifana nendlela yaseSlovyansk kanye nendawo yempi yaseKostyantynivka-Druzhkivka.
• Izimangalo zaseRussia zentuthuko enkulu (kufaka phakathi izindawo zokuhlala ezithile njengeSvyatohirsk) ziye zaboniswa ngokuphindaphindiwe njengeziyihaba noma ezingamanga ubufakazi base-Ukraine futhi zaze zavunywa eminye imithombo yaseRussia. UPutin ubeke (futhi waphuthelwa noma walungisa) izinsuku zokugcina eziningi zokulawula ngokugcwele iDonbas; ezamanje ezikhomba ngasekupheleni kuka-2026 zibonakala zingenakwenzeka ngokusekelwe esilinganisweni esibonakalayo.
• Amanani abantu abalimele eRussia asalokhu ephezulu (imibiko yase-Ukraine ikhombe izibalo ezingaphezu kuka-40,000 ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule). Amabutho ase-Ukraine aqhubeka nokucindezelwa ngokuhlasela kwama-drone/missile okuphakathi nendawo kanye nokude ezindaweni zokuhluza uwoyela zaseRussia, ingqalasizinda yezempi, ezokuthutha, kanye nezinye izinhloso ngaphakathi eRussia nasezindaweni ezihlaselwe yiwo (izibonelo zakamuva zifaka phakathi ukuhlasela okubikwe eduze kwaseNovorossiysk, eSaratov, nakwezinye izindawo).

I-Russia iyaqhubeka nokusebenzisa ama-drone amakhulu ahlanganisiwe, imicibisholo yohambo olude, imicibisholo eqhumayo, kanye nezinye izigameko ezibhekiswe emadolobheni ase-Ukraine, amandla, kanye nengqalasizinda. Ngemva kokuphela kwesikhashana esifushane sezithunywa zase-US, i-Russia yaqala ukuhlasela okunzima eKyiv (nakwezinye izindawo) cishe ngoSepthemba 7-8, okwabangela ukufa kwabantu abavamile (imibiko yabantu abacishe babe ngu-5 ababulewe kanye nabantu abaningi abalimele enhloko-dolobha ngegagasi elilodwa), imililo, kanye nomonakalo ezindaweni zokuhlala nakwezinye izindawo. I-Ukraine ibhekene nengcindezi eqhubekayo ezivikelweni zomoya, ikakhulukazi izivikelo, ngaphambi kobusika.

Kuye kwabikwa nezigameko ezifana ne-drone yaseRussia ephula okwesikhashana isikhala sezindiza saseMoldova naseRomania.

Usizo, Ukusekela, kanye Nomongo Obanzi

Abalingani baseNtshonalanga bayaqhubeka nokunikeza ukwesekwa kwezempi, muva nje kugxilwe ekuvikeleni emoyeni: I-Ukraine ithola izimpahla zezikhali ze-Patriot ezingaba ngu-1,000 ngokusekelwa ngabalingani kanye nemali mboleko ye-EU; IJalimane isithathe isinyathelo sokuthumela ezinye izikhali ze-PAC-2 ezivela ezitokisini futhi yanxusa abanye ukuba benze okufanayo; i-UK ithembise amaphakheji engeziwe okuzivikela emoyeni. Ukukhathazeka kusaqhubeka mayelana nokuhlasela okuqinile kwaseRussia ebusika engqalasizinda yamandla kanye nesidingo sezinhlamvu eziqhubekayo, ukuzivikela emoyeni, nolunye usizo.

Impi isalokhu iyimpi enzima yokuwa. I-Russia ibambe iqhaza emikhakheni eminingi futhi ingaqhubeka nokucindezelwa ngabasebenzi, izikhali, amabhomu asheshayo, kanye nama-drones, kodwa intuthuko yayo ilinganiselwe futhi iyabiza, futhi amakhono okuhlasela ase-Ukraine akude kanye nokuguquguquka kokuzivikela kuyaqhubeka nokufaka izindleko futhi kuvimbela inkululeko yokusebenza yaseRussia. Alukho uhlangothi olubonakala luseduze nokufinyelela ukunqoba okuqondile kwezempi emikhondweni yamanje, futhi intando yezepolitiki yezivumelwano ezinkulu endaweni isalokhu iphansi. Isimo asiguquguquki; ukuhlolwa kwe-ISW kwansuku zonke, imibiko yabasebenzi base-Ukraine, kanye neziteshi zezindaba ezinkulu zinikeza izibuyekezo zakamuva kakhulu emikhakheni ethile.

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