A Demoskop poll (fieldwork July 29–August 10, sample of about 2,016 voters), published by Svenska Dagbladet and reported by Reuters and others on August 13, shows the four main opposition parties (Social Democrats, Centre Party, Greens, and Left Party) at a combined 50.6%. The governing bloc—Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, plus the closely aligned Sweden Democrats—stands at 46.9%. This produces a lead of roughly 3.7 percentage points for the opposition, down from about 7.6 points in a comparable June Demoskop survey. Bloomberg described the gap as roughly halved over the summer and the smallest between the blocs since autumn 2023.
Party-level results and comparisons
Key figures from the August Demoskop poll (with approximate changes from the prior June Demoskop where available):
- Social Democrats (S): 30.2% (down ~1.1 points; near their 30.3% in the 2022 election). Still clearly the largest party under Magdalena Andersson.
- Sweden Democrats (SD): 20.2% (up ~0.8).
- Moderates (M): 16.8% (up ~0.5; down from 19.1% in 2022).
- Christian Democrats (KD): 7.5% (up ~1.0; highest in several years).
- Centre Party (C): 7.3% (up ~1.1; overtaking both the Left and Greens in this poll).
- Greens (MP): 6.6% (down ~1.0).
- Left Party (V): 6.5% (down ~1.1).
- Liberals (L): 2.4% (down ~0.5)—well below the 4% threshold required for seats in the Riksdag.
Compared with the 2022 election result, the opposition bloc is up slightly from 48.9%, while the governing side is down from 49.6%. Earlier 2026 polls (Novus in July, various in May–June, and Statistics Sweden/SCB in May) had shown larger opposition leads, often in the 7–12+ point range, with Social Democrats frequently in the low-to-mid 30s.
Context and implications
Sweden’s election is set for September 13, 2026. Campaign themes centre on cost of living, security, immigration, crime, and energy supply. The current government is the Tidö Agreement arrangement: a minority Moderates-led coalition (with Christian Democrats and Liberals) that relies on support from the Sweden Democrats.
The Liberals’ persistent weakness below the 4% threshold is a significant risk for the governing side. If they fall short, their votes would not translate into seats, effectively widening the practical gap in parliament (projections from the Demoskop numbers put the opposition around 186 seats versus roughly 163 for Moderates + Christian Democrats + Sweden Democrats). Majority is 175 seats.
A shift to the opposition would likely bring Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson back as prime minister after four years out of office. Coalition possibilities on that side are not fully settled; a change would probably mean higher welfare spending, while major shifts on immigration, defence, or Ukraine support are seen as less likely. On the right, Christian Democrats’ recent gains (attributed in some coverage to messaging on welfare and a “right with a heart”) and smaller upticks for Moderates and Sweden Democrats have helped compress the gap.
Polling averages and other institutes have generally shown the opposition ahead throughout much of 2025–2026, though the size of the lead has fluctuated. Swedish polls can move in the final weeks, and the 4% threshold for smaller parties remains a key variable that can alter seat arithmetic even if overall vote shares stay similar. Turnout, undecided voters, and late campaign dynamics will matter.
In short, the right-wing government is still behind, but the race has tightened into a more competitive contest with roughly a month to go. The outcome will hinge on whether the governing side can continue closing the gap, whether the Liberals recover, and how the opposition consolidates its support.
